Across the world, the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts global renewable power capacity is going to double by 2030, therefore increasing by 4,600 GW; however, the group revised down its estimates when it comes to U.S. deployments within that period by around 50% as compared to the 2024 estimates.
The fact is that the policy changes in the U.S. as well as China contributed to a complete drop of 5% when it comes to the worldwide forecast for renewables as compared to the 2024 report.
Those policy changes within the U.S. happen to include the earlier phase-out of federal tax credits, the suspension of new offshore wind leasing, and the restriction of the permitting of onshore wind and solar PV projects on federal land, as well as import restrictions, the IEA said.
It is well to be noted that the U.S. forecast revisions also happen to be based on the new foreign entity of concern restrictions from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which are anticipated to negatively affect solar and wind as well as battery components, which happen to be sourced overseas. The report also went on to cite executive orders suspending the offshore wind leasing and, at the same time, restricting the permitting of onshore wind as well as solar PV projects across the federal land, said the IEA.
The IEA further mentioned that among all technologies, wind happens to be impacted most, with both offshore and onshore capacity growth revised down by around 60% to 57 GW over the forecast period.
Apparently, the IEA revised down its forecast pertaining to the U.S. solar deployment by around 40%, therefore projecting that the total capacity in 2030 is going to fall short of the earlier anticipations by 140 GW.
As per the IEA, within solar PV, the largest relative impact happens to be on the distributed solar, especially the residential systems that are revised down by almost 70%, which are mostly affected due to the scheduled expiration of residential solar PV tax credits at the end of 2025, well before the tax credits when it comes to other technologies expire.
It is well to be noted that the forecast from China was impacted due to its shift from the fixed tariffs to auctions, which, as per the IEA, is indeed impacting the project economics and at the same time lowering the growth expectations.
In spite of all this, China still continues to account for almost 60% of the global renewable power capacity growth and happens to be right on track so as to reach its recently announced 2035 wind as well as solar energy target five years ahead of schedule.
IEA went on to note that major manufacturers of solar and wind have gone on to report large losses in spite of the surging global installations due to reasons such as the solar supply glut causing price dips. Nonetheless, renewable developers have either increased or maintained their capacity deployment targets for the end of the decade since last year.
The evaluation in this report shows that one-fifth of the surveyed large renewables developers increased their deployment targets, while three-quarters went ahead and kept them at similar levels to 2024. Utility contracts and corporate PPAs, as well as merchant plants, also happen to be a major driver, comprising 30% of the global renewable power capacity.
Interestingly, the IEA revised down its growth forecast for the global offshore wind industry by over 25% over the next five years, since several developers have gone on to reduce their 2030 deployment targets and the industry is in the middle of policy headwinds in the U.S. along with the economic turbulence across Europe, Japan, and India.
